Players Championship Predictions: Who Will Conquer TPC Sawgrass?
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TPC Sawgrass. The Players Championship. It’s here. Kicking off Thursday. And guess who’s the damn favorite? Scottie Scheffler. Again. When was the last time this guy *wasn’t* the guy to beat? Seriously, it takes some digging. The World No. 1 has been owning the odds board for what feels like forever.Remember the 2023 BMW Championship? Rory McIlroy barely edged him out. A hair’s breadth. Scheffler was +800, Rory was +750. Close. Too close. And wouldn’t you know it, those two titans. They’ve snagged the last three Players titles. Scheffler in ’23 and ’24. Rory last year, beating J.J. Spaun in a playoff. Now they’re back. Top two on the board. Again.Scheffler’s sitting pretty at +450. McIlroy’s at +1600. Collin Morikawa rounds out the top three, clocking in at +1800. It’s the same old story, different year. Scheffler’s paired with Tommy Fleetwood and Justin Thomas for the opening rounds. McIlroy’s got Xander Schauffele and Hideki Matsuyama for company. Morikawa? He’s with Ludvig Aberg and Si Woo Kim. Big names. Big pressure.This tournament. It’s got the richest purse. Twenty-five million bucks. The winner? Takes home a cool $4.5 million. So yeah, there’s a lot on the line. We’ve rounded up our staff’s picks. The guys we think have a shot. And the dark horses. The sleepers you might want to keep an eye on.Here’s the rundown of the top dogs and their odds:
- Scottie Scheffler (+450)
- Rory McIlroy (+1600)
- Collin Morikawa (+1800)
- Ludvig Aberg (+2200)
- Si Woo Kim (+2200)
- Russell Henley (+2800)
- Tommy Fleetwood (+2800)
- Xander Schauffele (+3000)
- Cameron Young (+3250)
- Hideki Matsuyama (+3250)
- Matt Fitzpatrick (+3250)
The Usual Suspects: Top Picks and Why
Alright, let’s get down to it. Who’s got the juice this week?Josh Berhow, our managing editor, is riding with **Collin Morikawa (+1800)**. He says the win at Pebble was massive, and Morikawa hasn’t exactly cooled off since. Two top-10s. He hasn’t shot worse than 70 in his last three tournaments. Last year, he tied for 10th here. Best finish at TPC Sawgrass. Things are looking good for Morikawa. He’s trending.Then there’s Josh Schrock, associate news editor. He’s leaning towards **Ludvig Aberg (+3000)**. Aberg’s had a bit of a rocky start to the season, some WD-CUTs, but he looked like his old self at Bay Hill last week. Fifth in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee. Third in SG: Approach. Schrock thinks he’s due for another big win. Remember that Genesis breakthrough last year? Yeah, that.Jessica Marksbury, senior editor. She’s going with the obvious. The low-hanging fruit. **Scottie Scheffler (+450)**. She admits it. But who wouldn’t pick him? Even his ‘B’ game keeps him inside the top 25. And at a course like TPC Sawgrass? A ball-striker’s paradise? Where he’s already got two wins and a T20 in his last three starts? Doubts? Nah. He’ll be in contention.Zephyr Melton, associate game improvement editor, is also on **Scottie Scheffler (+450)**. He says it’s tough to bet against the best player in the world. Especially in the biggest events. He thinks Scheffler will snap out of whatever funk he’s in and win this thing again. Bold. But, you know, Scheffler.Josh Sens, senior writer, is taking a swing at **Cameron Young (+3200)**. Young’s record of close calls on the big stage is well-known. So is his talent. Everyone knows it’s just a matter of time. And with the solid form he showed at Bay Hill last week? The time might be right.Jack Hirsh, associate gear editor, is backing **Tommy Fleetwood (+2800)**. What has Tommy-Lad done in his three U.S. starts this year? T4, T7, 49th. The rough week at Bay Hill might seem concerning, but Hirsh sees it as value. Fleetwood is tailor-made for TPC Sawgrass. Pun intended. He’s one of the most accurate drivers on the planet. That always plays well here.Alan Bastable, executive editor, is joining Schrock on **Ludvig Aberg (+3000)**. He agrees. After a quiet second half of 2025, Aberg’s been easy to overlook. (Don’t tell anyone, but Patrick Reed is catching up in the world rankings.) But the Swede’s been trending up. Three strong finishes. Most recently, third at Bay Hill. On this course, Aberg’s primed for a big week.
The Sleeper Circus: Who Could Surprise?
Now for the fun stuff. The guys who aren’t getting all the headlines, but could absolutely sneak in and take it. These are the players with the odds that make you do a double-take.Josh Berhow is digging deep for **Chris Gotterup (+5000)**. He’s not exactly a sleeper, but at these odds? You gotta take it. He had a rough Sunday at Bay Hill, sure. But he won at another TPC course, the WM Phoenix Open, just a month ago. That’s serious form.Josh Schrock is throwing a dart at **Rickie Fowler (+5500)**. His shoulder issues from last year? Gone. He’s been playing solid golf all year. T18, T18, T19, T28, T9 in his first five starts. He even led at Pebble Beach before things slipped on the weekend. He’s 17th in total Strokes Gained. His putter’s working again. Plus, he’s got good memories here from his 2015 win. Yeah, +5500 isn’t exactly “sleeper” territory, but nobody else down this list is jumping out at him.Jessica Marksbury is looking at **Jake Knapp (+5000)**. Knapp’s had a killer start to the year. Top 11 in his first five events. He even withdrew from the API with illness, showing how serious he is about his performance this week. He’s only played Sawgrass twice, but was T12 last year. At these odds? A bargain.Zephyr Melton is highlighting **Pierceson Coody (+9000)**. Coody’s been sneaky consistent. Top 20 in five of seven starts this year. Flying way under the radar. If you don’t know him, you should. He’s going to be around for a while.Josh Sens is putting his faith in **Corey Connors (+10000)**. From tee to green, Connors is as steady as they come. Ball-striking skills? Exactly what Sawgrass demands. He finished T6 in his last Players appearance. If that pesky putter heats up, who knows?Jack Hirsh is backing **Sahith Theegala (+7500)**. Three top-10s this season. He’s back in the Signature events and the OWGR Top 100. Sahith Theegala is back. Hirsh wouldn’t be surprised if he wins this year.And Alan Bastable? Another Swede. **Alex Noren (+8000)**. Like Aberg, Noren’s been grinding. Three strong finishes since Pebble. His natural fade? It’s perfect for a course where draws and hooks can spell disaster.
TPC Sawgrass: The Ultimate Test
TPC Sawgrass. It’s not just another golf course. It’s a beast. Known for its immaculate conditioning and, of course, that iconic island green 17th. But it’s more than just one hole. It’s a relentless test of precision.This course demands accuracy off the tee. You can’t just blast away. You need to place the ball. Strategically. The fairways are tight. The rough is penal. And if you miss the green? You’re in for a world of hurt. The greens themselves are undulating and fast. You need a deft touch. And a good putter.The wind can be a huge factor here. It whips across the water. It can change a simple chip into a lottery ticket. You need to be able to adjust. To feel the course. To play smart golf.It’s a ball-striker’s course, no doubt. Guys who can hit it long and straight. Guys who can control their trajectory. Guys who can manage their game. That’s who usually thrives here. That’s why you see names like Scheffler and McIlroy at the top. They have the tools. They have the mental fortitude.But that’s the beauty of The Players. It’s not always the guy with the lowest odds who walks away with the trophy. Sometimes, it’s the guy who puts it all together at the right time. The guy who gets a little luck. The guy who plays the best golf over four grueling days.We’ll be watching. You should too. This is the Players Championship. Anything can happen.For more on the tournament and how to watch, check out the official Players Championship website.